Monday, March 17, 2008

Technical focus: EURJPY and AUDUSD



EURJPY

Recently we posted a EURJPY in chart in which we were looking for a sizeable follow through lower for the pair on the risk aversion theme. The sell-off was alas quickly aborted as the risk aversion them came into play -note, however, that EURJPY was unable to close above the key 5-day SMA. All in all, as long as the atmosphere of fear reigns, we would expect the JPY to strongly outperform EUR. A possible retest of the 150.00 area may await here soon. Have a look at AUDJPY and NZDJPY as possible alternatives to this trade.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD topped out right at the 0.764 Fibonacci, which many favor employing as a retracement level when looking for a market turnaround. As mentioned above, the relative yield curve developments are beginning to favor the USD relative to AUD. There is little technical confirmation that a new sell-off wave could develop other than the rejection of the rally at the Fibonacci level, but continued risk aversion here could continue to see more pressure on AUD with its tendency to perform poorly when equity markets are tumbling.

JPY sharply stronger across the board as 100.00 USDJPY level sees first test. JPY crosses set to tumble?

US Retail Sales on tap today, but market more focused on risk theme again on hedge fund failure news.